March 23, 2006

Post-primary analysis

Kurt Allemeier on QC Online has a piece exploring how things broke down in primary voting and the role of rural areas in helping Jacobs, Zinga, and Huff to their wins.
Jacobs received 71% of the vote in areas outside the Quad Cities which obviously meant the difference. Pat O'Brien, Jacobs'campaign manager is also heard from.
Whether they were Democrat or Republican, areas outside the Illinois metro Quad-Cities were kind to the local winners in Tuesday's Illinois primary.

Mike Jacobs singled out voters in Carroll, Henry, Mercer and Whiteside counties for thanks Tuesday night following his victory in the Democratic primary for state senate District 36.

Overall, Mr. Jacobs defeated Paul Rumler with 56 percent of the vote, but was boosted by voters outside of Rock Island County -- where he collected 71 percent of the vote, according to unofficial final results. In Rock Island County's rural areas, especially the south end of the county, Mr. Jacobs received better support than in the metro areas, according to precinct by precinct results.

Former news anchor Andrea Zinga, of Coal Valley, praised her grassroots effort that touched counties like Whiteside, Hancock and McDonough and allowed her to beat Moline businessman Jim Mowen by 275 votes in a three-candidate race for the GOP nomination for the 17th Congressional District seat.

Final results didn't come in until the wee hours of the morning, but showed Ms. Zinga with 42 percent of the vote, to Mr. Mowen's 41 percent, according to unofficial final results. Aledo businessman Brian Gilliland earned 17 percent of the vote.

Ms. Zinga's efforts in smaller counties helped offset Mr. Mowen's advantage in Rock Island, Adams and Henry counties. Ms. Zinga commented in candidate forums that Mr. Mowen was focusing his campaign in more populous counties in the district. Mr. Mowen said during the campaign that electibility in Rock Island County was a key to the election.

Mr. Mowen beat Ms. Zinga in Rock Island County 2,876 votes to 2,204.
...
Positive news about the opening of the Thomson prison likely helped Mr. Jacobs in Carroll and Whiteside counties, where he out-polled Mr. Rumler, Pat O'Brien, Mr. Jacobs' campaign manager, said.

Mr. Jacobs had strong support in the upper and lower ends of Rock Island County. In the lower part of the county, the strong support for state Rep. Pat Verschoore, D-Milan, helped, Mr. O'Brien said. In several precincts from that area, Mr. Jacobs received 60 percent of the vote.

Getting out the vote on Tuesday was important, since an anti-incumbent sentiment seemed to be hanging over local Democratic races, Mr. O'Brien said. The Jacobs campaign rented two vans and offered to drive voters, especially from senior high rises that formerly had voting centers, to the polls.

"We were worried people who supported Mike would think, 'Oh, he doesn't have anything to worry about,' and wouldn't vote," Mr. O'Brien said. "Well, you don't have anything to worry about if those people vote."

Rock Island County Sheriff Mike Grchan got caught in the anti-incumbent sentiment. Mike Huff, a sergeant on the department, in his second try in the Democratic primary, beat the four-term incumbent with 51 percent of the vote according to unofficial final results.

Mr. Huff believes voters were ready for a change, and unlike four years ago when five candidates were on the ballot, had only two to choose from.

In the 2002 primary, Mr. Grchan received 38 percent of the vote to Mr. Huff's 24 percent.

In Tuesday's primary, Mr. Huff was buoyed by support in the upper and lower ends of Rock Island County, while Mr. Grchan found most of his support in the metro area. The upper end of the county, where Mr. Huff held a fundraiser supported by several police and fire chiefs from smaller departments in that area, especially proved to be a stronghold for the winner.

34 Comments:

At 3/23/2006 8:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What a great victory for Mike Jacobs. He did a great Job overcoming the print media the anti-hog vote and the way he recieved the job. To overcome all of these and Mike Bolands efforts in such a overwhelming manner is a testiment to the job that Jacobs has done in Springfield.

 
At 3/23/2006 8:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

t takin a crack at it. The only true Democratic site it states.

To the inside Dope,here you go again. Tix comes out at 22/3/06 10:28 and calls it 52-48 a landslide.

Your next post at 22/3/06 13:00 "Yes, Pat O'Brien rolled up a victory for Jacobs. This should make his political stock rise".

Then Anon 22/3/06 13:50 tiz, If 52-48 isn't a landslide, 57-43(the actual result of Jacobs' victory) certainly is.

Then you say 22/3/06 13:58 "Don't be fudging the numbers.
According to the vote totals reported in the Dispatch,
final results were

55.98 to 44.02

Sounds more like 56 44. Not a huge diff, but keeps it accurate.

And once again, do we really need more tone-deafness from Jacobs? Is it REALLY necessary to try to paint his win as a "landslide"?"

It took you eight min. to correct a 1% difference from a Jacobs supporter. While you let a Rumler supporter sya it was 52-48. This is the constant badgering that you have done to Jacobs since the start. This is rediculous.

It is a shame that there has to be a site that people can go and respond to you without being deleted.

 
At 3/23/2006 9:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look at your times Dope. Your theory just doen't fly.

 
At 3/23/2006 9:57 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

ANON 8:54

You are an idiot. Sorry, but it's true.

First of all, the reason I didn't post your comment is because it's dumb and I really didn't want to have to take up comment space setting you straight. But I guess I will now.

First of all, you think you've got a big scandal here... some sort of big deal which proves I'm unfair. You base this on the fact that I corrected some Jacobs supporter really fast and didn't correct a Rumler supporter. Boy.. that's really a big issue. Way to spot it!

But you don't get it.

When I corrected the vote spread, I did it for everyone. Duh.

I don't read every comment the moment they come in. When I check on comments, there's often dozens of them which have come in over the last few hours.

You're entire silly point rests on the fact that I quickly corrected a commnter about the actual vote spread, but that simply isn't the way it works. I read several comments at once, posted them, and then wrote the reply. It has nothing to do with when the commenter actually wrote the comment. I often see them and post them all at the same time.

Nice try. You really need to think about these things before you pop off.

And congratulations on you and the other morons in finding a site which you haven't forced to begin screening comments yet. Way to go.

Once they see what sort of stupid and nasty comments you leave, I'm sure they'll learn that they too have to take measures to prevent your stuff from wrecking the blog.

If any readers want to get a good idea of what a bunch of sore winners this gang of goons are, go look at the comments at Taking a Crack at It.

They're disgusting and pathetic.

 
At 3/23/2006 10:11 AM, Blogger tiz said...

Anon 8:54
I hate responding to trolls... But the 52-48 figure I quoted came directly from a quote of your beloved Jacobs in the article. Here's the quote:


"You can read anything you want into the numbers," he said. "In a Democratic primary, 52-48 is a landslide. We began to work the streets; we beat them in the precincts. People were really attracted to my message."


So even if it really didn't amount to 52-48, Jacobs himself said it was so.

Personally I don't care if it was 60-40. Given the money, name recogniton, and whoring to the press Jacobs has been doing the last year we should have seen Obama/Keyes numbers.

I really hope Mike loses the ego a bit and cleans up his act. If he doesn't I guarantee you'll have a Paul Rumler AND a legit GOP contender next time around.

 
At 3/23/2006 10:13 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Anon 9:52...

I'll try to explain again.. this time reeeealll slow so you can understand.

Comments are held for moderation before they make print.

When I check in on them, there are often dozens of comments which have been left while I was away.

I then post them. They appear in comments in the order they were left and with the times they were left.

This might be confusing to you, but I hope it helps.

In other words, I saw all of those comments at the same time, and posted them at the same time. The times shown on the comments are the time that the commenter actually wrote the comment.

You can leave a comment at 8 a.m. and if I don't see it and clear it until 10 p.m., it won't appear until then. But when it does appear, it will say that it was left at 8 a.m. Get it?

All comments are stored in the order they were left until I release them to be published.

So again...your little theory falls apart and makes no sense.

End of story.

And this is why I don't print comments like yours. Now I've had to waste my time trying to explain things to you and all this space has been taken up with something that was stupid to begin with.

If you have a problem, send me e-mail.

Now let's TRY to get things back to the topic at hand.

 
At 3/23/2006 10:43 AM, Anonymous Dave said...

Lets start looking at the general and leave the primary behind us.

 
At 3/23/2006 12:06 PM, Anonymous Dave said...

What do you think of Beydler's idea to move the general election up to August or September? Anyone have thoughts on this kind of idea?

 
At 3/23/2006 3:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It was the primary Dave.

 
At 3/23/2006 4:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jacobs 1, Beydler, Reeder, Boland, D/A, Rumler 0.

The Head Usher

 
At 3/23/2006 5:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that this is the stupidest idea that I have ever heard. Consider the source.

 
At 3/23/2006 7:15 PM, Blogger rope-a-dope said...

This is a good time to congratulate Sheriff Grchan on his long service to the people. I'd personally have rather seen him retire and go out by choice, so in some ways this race reminds me a bit of the seasoned baseball veteran who tries to come back for one too many seasons. It’s hard to be a good manager and control costs etc. , and also at the same time be a good “union democrat” and please the guys, it’s a thankless task really when you think about it.

AFSCME should feel good in light of it's work for Huff and the ensuing victory, that union has flexed it's political muscles.


Now for what I find most interesting / curious about this year’s vote.

It's quite interesting that the outlying areas seemed to go for Jacobs in this Primary, especially in light of the fact that Boland also carried the Whiteside, Henry, and Carroll County portions of his district very heavily in his '04 trouncing of Ahern.

It seems that the Democrats in the more Rural portions of the Senate District are more loyal to incumbents than in Rock Island County, where we supposedly have a Democratic machine. In my mind it indicates that the vaunted Rock Island County Democratic Organization is based more on demographics than on any kind of machine that can control and/or influence voters.

Verrrrrry interesting! ;)

 
At 3/23/2006 9:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Paul Rumler should be commended for his run. A lot of good, sometimes great leaders don't win right out of the chute. We live in the land of Lincoln. How many times did he lose? Obama, he lost the first time out as well. Don't give up Paul. Neither should Mr. Ahern or Mr. Darrow. I think these three epitomize what is great about the future of our party--- attrative candidates, well spoken, issue oriented campaigns, conducted by young men who showed the compassion and guts to run against the status quo. The RI party would be well served to see this talent blossom for the future.

 
At 3/23/2006 10:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's great that people who care about our goverment and how it works can run to try and help the people. I commend all winners and nonwinners. The main concern is our area getting the dollars that are needed to get the Western Campus Here in River City. Can we all work together to support the people that are already in office not matter how they got there.(I'm so tired of the Crap as Insider say's) Let's get Western, Thompson and The New Ben Butterworth area a reality. The media and such venue's will need to be positive, for this to happen. Love Ya All Christian Women

 
At 3/23/2006 11:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems crazy to me that there is still arguing going on. Jacobs won, Rumler lost. Who cares by how much? I think Jacobs supporters should be gracious and just leave it be, these Jacobs 1 everyone else 0 comments are ridiculous. Rumler and his supporters need to look to the future. How can they help the area? How can we ALL make the QC a better place? The negativity is unnecessary and immature. The "fight" is over. We are all democrats, let’s work together.

 
At 3/24/2006 8:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree. Unity should be the buzzword.

 
At 3/24/2006 9:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have seen Rumler and Jacobs supporters both being negative here. Lets quit pointing fingers. I find it disgusting to say the least.

 
At 3/24/2006 10:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There has not been a negative word since 4:00 yesterday afternoon. Unity and healing has begun. Anon 24/3/06 09:09 is the first negative thing that I have read on this blog. Unity and healing have begun.

 
At 3/24/2006 11:11 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Good think I've dumped the dozen or more nasty, gloating, sore winner comments that I continue to receive.

 
At 3/24/2006 11:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lets all not forget - UNITY and also Jacobs WILL fight for WORKING men and women in this area. I know he is a strong voice for Union members. I, as others wish he would 'tone it down a bit'.
Just becouse he is a little off of the cuff, doesnt mean he doesnt is it a LOAD voice in springfiled for us working men and women.

 
At 3/24/2006 6:33 PM, Anonymous Political Geek said...

Mike Huff and all his workers did the old fashion "grass root" thing and were successful. I was very pleased to here Huff say it was time to get past the devision the election caused. If he sticks to his word, the department will heal.

An Illinois law, once again, concerns me. Caucusing a person, rather than having the candidate face the voters in a primary, is just plain wrong. The opposition party voters will not get a say in who is selected. In the sheriff's race the Republicans are concidering caucusing a long time democratic voter. The unsuspecting voters will likely never be told about the person's voting record. And the candidate will, of course, not disclose their disloyalty to their previous party of choice. If Huff brings it out he will be accused of negative campaigning. Slick, but not right. Because our law makers will not do the right thing. The only option left to voters is to vote against caucused candidates. I know what most of you are thinking. Because of the 3 to 1 vote ratio of democrates to republicans in Rock Island County, the anti-caucus vote thing is a given. Maybe, just maybe, a bigger than usual ASS whipping this November in the sheriff's race will deter future caucusing. Best of luck to Mr. Huff. Democrates and republicans should unite for a unified front against bad politics.

 
At 3/24/2006 7:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bumler, Boland, Beydler...that's alot of "B's"...weird...what else starts with "B"? Oh that's right...BUTT !!

 
At 3/24/2006 10:22 PM, Anonymous Tom Benson said...

I want to thank the 13,000+ voters in the 17th District who voted for me on Tuesday giving me almost 40% of the vote. And a special Big thanks to the intelligent, well-informed voters of Mercer County where I actually won. I might be asking for your vote again someday when our fine State Representative Pat Verschoore decides to retire.

I used a Robo-Call to congratulate Don on his big victory, I don't know if he got it live, on his machine or just deleted it without listening. Just in case you didn't get the message Don, I am conceding defeat, but I will be back.

I want to congratulate Mike Huff and Sen. Mike Jacobs and pledge my full support to help them this fall.
Paul Rumler was effective in winning the "anyone but Jacobs" vote and didn't do anything to divide Democrats this fall. I am hoping that he chooses to stay in the Quad Cities and become active in the Rock Island County Central Committee. Sen. Jacobs margin of victory was substantial and exceeded expectations under the circumstances.
With Sen. Jacobs working in Springfield three days a week, Mr. Rumler had time to gain a grass roots advantage which likely played a role in the result. Also don't forget the convincing victory of Gov. Blagojevich. Everyone thought he was in trouble and he beat his opponent more than 2-1 and if Democrats work together in the fall he will easily defeat JBT and we will also return Lane Evans to Congress.

I also want to make a public appeal to all Democrats to lay down your arms, unite and get ready for the big fights of the next two years for Congress and the White House. I do want to know the motivation of State Rep. Mike Boland in this Primary. He must be planning to retire in two years because I think he will see a well funded and strong primary opponent. The time would be right for Pat O'Brien to move into the 71st District, establish residency and give us the kind of representation for the working man and the support of fellow Democrats that we deserve.

I also want to see us working toward campaign finance reform for Illinois similar to the rules of McCain-Feingold as Gov. Blagojevich has proposed. This reform would prevent the type of unfair activities by PAC's in the days leading up to an election. Believe it or not, the candidates really do not have control over what these groups are doing to support their own agenda. And then the law requires them to report their fine work as an in-kind contribution to the candidate they are claiming to support. When I worked on State Rep. Verschoore's campaign, a group sent out a mailer stating the exact opposite of Pat's position that we were telling people on the phone and in other campaign mailers. But we could do nothing about it. We were upset that the group did this, but there was nothing we could do.

I also encourage all of you to lighten up on fellow Democrats. We need unity and focus and for those of you who thought the Dope was being unfair to your candidate, it is time to find a new hobby. This blog can be a useful tool for communication and cooperation and it is time to just plain give it a rest and move on with your life. If you don't know what to do instead of attacking the Dope, try renting a movie, playing with your kids, Go Outside, ride a bike, donate time to a local charity, remember to take your medicine, volunteer at a battered women's shelter, move to New Orleans and help them rebuild or read a book.

Have a great day and I will be back.

 
At 3/24/2006 10:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wish we could see everyones voice on your site. Too bad that you feel the need to steer the conversation. We have to take you at your word about the dozens of gloating sore winners. I for one am not sure you would tellus about the dozens of sore loser comments you strike.

 
At 3/24/2006 10:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Or Tom, the Dope could give it a rest. He could rent a movie and try to bring the party to Unity as the rest of the democrats are trying to do. And your reform idea is the sillyest thing that I have ever heard. People have the right to free speach. Not on this blog of course , but in the real world they do. I am here to tell you that censorship is the way to ruination. Blago would love nothing more than to quiet the right to life people. In my world they have the right. Hitler would have never let anyone disagree with him. Will YOU!

 
At 3/25/2006 12:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tom, you are a very miss-guided person. Your agenda is clearly visible to anyone with a brain, and knowledge of local politics. Your support for the machine is despicable. You should take the time to re-evaluate, and you will realize that a real democracy is the only thing that will move or area forward. Politics doesn't have to be a business for the crooked; it's only this way in the QC. If the Party doesn't change, the GOP will seize control within 15 years. Don't believe me? Ask a 20 year old.

 
At 3/25/2006 1:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am voting republican this fall - because jacobs is still in office.

 
At 3/25/2006 10:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tom, all conversation about the 71st begins and ends with Mike and Denny Jacobs, along with John G. You know the game. Mike won, he is more powerful then ever and all future conversations about the future of the 71st is between Dennis Ahern or Porter McNeil. Who does Jacobs support? That will be key, and will the other follow the dicates of the party and fall in line? Your comment was kind of self serving and presumptious of you to ask Pat O'Brien to move. Besides, Mike Darrow or Pat O'Brien in my estimation are the future there.

 
At 3/25/2006 10:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What has Jacobs done to make you feel that he is so unfit for the job? DO tell.

 
At 3/25/2006 12:57 PM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

ANON 22:24

I'll file your complaint along with all those pounding on me for not deleting more comments than I do and demanding that I be a more "responsible gatekeeper".

As far as "sore winners" I'd direct your attention to Anon 19:31 above... a comment I'd dumped but published in your honor.
And that's just a taste of the crap I get daily.

Here's another:

"What?! No comments from the dope since the 11th. Hmmm...is that because your time on this planet has run out? You, are sorry...this blog, is sorry...and MIKE JACOBS is THE Senator of the 36th District. Sorry Paul, Sorry Dope, Sorry Boland...oh wait, you guys already knew you were SORRY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

and another from the same person,

"Guess what? Mike Boland is an IDIOT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "

And another, ironic for the fact that Jacobs practiced NON STOP attacks against Rumler from day one..

"UNITY IS A TWO WAY STREET. RUMLER AND HIS CRONIES HAVE ATTACKED SEN.
MIKE JACOBS FOR 8 MONTHS NOW AND IT APPEARS THEY ARE NOT READY TO LET
IT GO. I'TS WAY PAST TIME FOR THESE NEGATIVE ATTACKS TO STOP.

JACOBS WON, BYDLER, REEDER, THE D/A, BOLAND AND RUMLER LOST. THAT'S A
FACT. ACCEPT IT AND MOVE, OR PULL A MIKE BOLAND AND ENDORSE THE
REPUBLICAN OPPONENT."

That's just the tip of the iceberg.

Trust me, if they're dumped, they're dumped for a good reason.

 
At 3/25/2006 4:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How do I know that you are not just making all of these up since you are the gatekeeper. This is a great strat. Protect us from nothing and then come out and say people are writting crazy things. You are to be trusted, I think not.

 
At 3/26/2006 2:41 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

They're all posted. Go find 'em.
If you don't know by now that I wouldn't make that crap up then frankly, I don't care what you think.

 
At 3/26/2006 2:42 AM, Anonymous Tom Benson said...

Dear anonymous, please join the local Democratic party "machine" and help be a part of the reforms and changes that are coming that will resolve your complaints.

Also, other anonymous, campaign finance reform for Illinois is not my idea and is certainly not widely supported by the Democratic machine. I will continue to work for positive changes within the local party and welcome any suggestions you may have. I put my name behind my comments and ideas and I would love to have some type of meaningful, thought-provoking discussion with all of you anonymous commenters. Could you at least adopt a make believe name so that we can keep it straight. Unfortunately, the focus of anonymous commenters is usually to attack the messenger and not the message.

To all of you, I have written the Dope on numerous occasions to give him suggestions on how to improve the blog. When I didn't turn it into a personal attack he tended to respond and even agreed with some things and we agreed to disagree on others.

On a final note, in my opinion the most qualified resident of the 71st District to be our next State Representative is Porter McNeil. My comment about Pat O'Brien was intended as a suggestion that he would be able to realize his goal of being a State Rep. much sooner in the 71st than in the 72nd. I don't think that State Rep. Pat Verschoore is going anyhwere in the near future. He is doing a fine job in Springfield and loves serving his constituents.

I don't see an opening in the 71st anytime soon either. Pat will be well positioned to make another run at Mayor. I think Porter would be an even stronger candidate for Congress and should be on the short list if and when Lane chooses to retire.

 
At 5/09/2006 4:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey GEEK, just read your posting about the caucus issue. You make a great arguement for the Zinga bunch. About the sheriff's race. I have talked with people who know or have met the other candidate. I was told that the other guy told the Republican Party about his voting history in the primaries and unless you were with him how do you know how the guy voted. The only thing that is public information is what ballot is selected in the primary not who is voted for in a general election. Your statement is a little misleading. I have also been told that this guy has provided them with his employment history. Has Huff been as open with his party. If not, why not. They both work at the same place from what I have been told. "Slick" was running Evans and then trying to slide Hare in after the primary. At least we heard about the plan to caucus in the sheriff's candidate prior to the primary. I think Huff has to get the anti-Grchan voters to stay with him that is why he is on the attack with Schwigen. Just wondering if you are sticking by your statement "the only option left to voters is to vote against caucused candidates". Betting you would like to take that statement back. I would like to see what Huff is hiding. Any chance you can arrange that.

 

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