January 3, 2008

Inside Dope prognosticators were spot on

I took a look at a previous post asking readers to make their predictions about Iowa, and wow!

Bear in mind that these predictions were made 17 days ago, a lifetime in politics, and that polling didn't give any indication of any clear favorite at any time prior to today.

A full 7 out of 8 predictors picked Obama to win Iowa, something that was by no means assured.

Anon 1:06 got the first, second order correct for both parties.

KAM, HiFi, Andy, and Scott all nailed the Obama, Edwards, Clinton finishing order.

KAM deserves Guru status for correctly predicting the finishing order in both the Democratic AND Republican field. (though Thompson tied with McCain for third)

And Scott wins the Swami Extraordinaire award for his stunning psychic ability on the Democratic side. Scott predicted that Obama would win and that Edwards and Clinton would duke it out for second with Edwards just edging her out. (and final results show Edwards margin over Clinton to amount to only 0.5%, 29.9 to Clinton's 29.4%.)

I think I'd like to go to Vegas with Scott or KAM sometime.

Here's the predictions. Great job and thanks for participating.

~~~~

At 12/18/2007 6:35 AM, Anonymous said...
Obama wins Iowa, NH and SC.
Clinton wins Fla. Nev. & Mich, and on Super Tuesday pulls away.


At 12/18/2007 8:32 AM, KAM said...
Iowa:

Dems:
1) Obama
2) Edwards
3) Clinton

Reps:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Thompson

KAM


At 12/19/2007 1:06 PM, Anonymous said...
Obama and Huckabee win Iowa. Edwards and Romney are a distant 2nd. Clinton loses steam and Thompson is finished.


At 12/19/2007 1:32 PM, HiFi said...
Anon: If Hillary loses Iowa and New Hampshire, there's no coming back. If any candidate can take the first two states (IA and NH), they will coast to victory on Super Tuesday with minimal interference.
My guess:
D's
1) Obama
2) Edwards (Very close second)
3) Hillary

R's
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Ron Paul

Romney then takes New Hampshire and the races moves past Super Tuesday wide open.


At 12/19/2007 8:11 PM, Andy said...
I think it will be….


Obama
Edwards
Clinton


I think that Obama finishes second in New Hampshire, wins SC and rolls from there.

Huckabee
Romney
Who Cares

This race will be long and nasty. The winner is going ot be so beat and broke, it won’t be a pretty autumn for the R’s.


At 12/20/2007 6:53 PM, Carl Nyberg said...
Iowa:

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Ron Paul

Edwards has the combination of ground game, progressive message and staying positive.

I think McCain finishes top three by default.


At 12/21/2007 6:48 PM, Anonymous said...
Huckabee takes Iowa, McCain takes NH, Romney second. Those three duke it out for the nomination, with McCain eventually winning.

Obama wins Iowa, Clinton wins NH. Clinton grabs the nomination on Super Tuesday.

Clinton picks former Iowa Gov Vilsack as VP, McCain picks Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and wins in November.


At 12/22/2007 4:25 PM, Scott said...
Dems:

Obama wins Iowa. Edwards and Clinton battle it out for second with Edwards edging her out.

Obama comes out of Iowa full steam ahead. He wins Iowa with Clinton taking second.

Edwards take Nevada marginally (since not many are going to show up for the caucus). Obama takes second.

Obama wins South Carolina. Clinton takes second. Edwards takes third. This would be the point where Edwards should be thinking about dropping out, but he won't. 2004 taught him to stick in there as long as possible until the frontrunner has to make a deal to shut you up.

February 5th: That's the ball game. The opening states will give Obama a lot of momentum, but Clinton could make up the difference here. If she can't win a majority of the delegates on February 5, Obama is the nominee.

1 Comments:

At 1/04/2008 7:22 PM, Blogger Scott said...

Good to know that I am loved. I'm all for Vegas, but you are buying. Now for New Hampshire...

Obama wins, but with a much smaller margin. Clinton takes second, and claims victory (it's the Clinton way in New Hampshire). Edwards finishes third. Edwards will stay in the race, but he will not be looking to win. Richardson stays in until Feb 5 , but then drops out to endorse Obama.

I would have said Richardson would go for Clinton, but last night we learned that Richardson asked his caucusers to support Obama if he was not viable. That is a big decision and it shows where Richardson feels the party should go.

In the end, Obama will be the nominee.

I'm going to post on my blog about my work in Iowa over the past few weeks. I'll let you know when it is up.

 

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