Dust off your balls
It's prognostication time again boys and girls.
Time for you to flex your political forecasting muscles and tell us who is going to win the Iowa caucusesssessesssss. (Or would that be caucci? Which begs the question, could the Hawkeye caucci be cock-eyed? But I digress.)
Taking into account the factors listed in the post below, list your prediction for who will place first, second, and third in Iowa for both parties if you please. Short explanations are appreciated, but not necessary. If you're particularly psychic, you can even predict margins if you dare.
You can also offer your picks for New Hampshire or other state's primaries if so inclined.
Good luck.
posted by The Inside Dope @ 12/17/2007
10 comments
10 Comments:
Obama wins Iowa, NH and SC.
Clinton wins Fla. Nev. & Mich, and on Super Tuesday pulls away.
Iowa:
Dems:
1) Obama
2) Edwards
3) Clinton
Reps:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Thompson
KAM
Obama and Huckabee win Iowa. Edwards and Romney are a distant 2nd. Clinton loses steam and Thompson is finished.
Anon: If Hillary loses Iowa and New Hampshire, there's no coming back. If any candidate can take the first two states (IA and NH), they will coast to victory on Super Tuesday with minimal interference.
My guess:
D's
1) Obama
2) Edwards (Very close second)
3) Hillary
R's
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Ron Paul
Romney then takes New Hampshire and the races moves past Super Tuesday wide open.
I think it will be….
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
I think that Obama finishes second in New Hampshire, wins SC and rolls from there.
Huckabee
Romney
Who Cares
This race will be long and nasty. The winner is going ot be so beat and broke, it won’t be a pretty autumn for the R’s.
Andy,
I like your thinking. haha!
But I think you may have underestimated "who cares". If that was on the ballot on the Republican side, I think it would sweep Iowa and New Hampshire in a route.
And yes, don't you feel terrible for the Republicans as they crumble and slide into a minority party (which I maintain they always have been.)
I'd like to gloat, but of course, since they were so respectful and dignified when they stole the last elections, it wouldn't be proper.
But with the "Sore Loserman" and "We won, get over it!" sort of immature and swinish gloating that went on every time they won, maybe we shouldn't feel reticent to rub it in their faces this time around?
Right said, Dope. I've never been a fan of Hillary Clinton but seeing watching Republicans foam at the mouth over her mere mention kind of makes me feel that after eight years of Bush, the right deserves a president who will raise their blood pressure every time they see him/her. My only concern is this growing suspicion that electing Hillary Clinton would mean that we don't get another Democratic president in my lifetime.
Regarding your other point, I think "Who Cares" had better watch out for "None of the Above". He's got lousy ballot placement, but high name recognition with anyone who's ever taken a standardized test.
Iowa:
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Ron Paul
Edwards has the combination of ground game, progressive message and staying positive.
I think McCain finishes top three by default.
Huckabee takes Iowa, McCain takes NH, Romney second. Those three duke it out for the nomination, with McCain eventually winning.
Obama wins Iowa, Clinton wins NH. Clinton grabs the nomination on Super Tuesday.
Clinton picks former Iowa Gov Vilsack as VP, McCain picks Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and wins in November.
Dems:
Obama wins Iowa. Edwards and Clinton battle it out for second with Edwards edging her out.
Obama comes out of Iowa full steam ahead. He wins Iowa with Clinton taking second.
Edwards take Nevada marginally (since not many are going to show up for the caucus). Obama takes second.
Obama wins South Carolina. Clinton takes second. Edwards takes third. This would be the point where Edwards should be thinking about dropping out, but he won't. 2004 taught him to stick in there as long as possible until the frontrunner has to make a deal to shut you up.
February 5th: That's the ball game. The opening states will give Obama a lot of momentum, but Clinton could make up the difference here. If she can't win a majority of the delegates on February 5, Obama is the nominee.
Republicans: Coming soon.
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