Reality on the march

Toughy McFlightsuit continues his slide in the polls and appears to be dragging his party down with him. On the heels of CBS's latest approval poll putting Bush at just 34%, his lowest rating ever, the USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll reported that when registered voters were asked, "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district, the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?", 53% preferred a Democrat, while only 39% preferred a Republican.

Gallup's recent trends on this "generic ballot" question -- from October 2005 through early February 2006 -- found a smaller six- to seven-point lead for the Democrats. However, the current 14-point Democratic lead is similar to a 12-point Democratic lead recorded last August. It is also among the highest seen since the Republicans came into power more than a decade ago.

This is not the first election since the Republican Party won majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994 that the Democrats have held a double-digit lead on this important indicator of electoral strength, but it is fairly rare. Throughout much of 1996 and in a couple of polls in 1998, the Democrats enjoyed a 10- to 13-point lead. However, the norm has been for the Republicans to trail the Democrats by only about five points among all registered voters.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to turn out to vote, particularly in midterm elections. As a result, the Republican Party has repeatedly won a majority of seats in Congress since 1994, while typically trailing the Democrats by a few points in pre-election surveys among all registered voters. In the past two midterm elections (1998 and 2002), Republicans trailed the Democrats among registered voters by nine points and five points respectively in Gallup's final pre-election polls.

It is unlikely, however, that the Republican majority could survive in the face of a popular surge for the Democrats, evidenced by a double-digit Democratic lead on the generic ballot just before the election.

Can the Democrats capitalize on this trend? Or will they squander it and let the Republicans erase their lead?
What do Democrats need to do to regain congress?