June 14, 2005

Analyst: Boland wants shot at Treasurer, has potiential to win

Thanks to a sharp-eyed reader who pointed me to a piece first published back in May by Russ Stewart, a Park Ridge attorney, writer, and political analyst. Stewart writes:
Hope springs eternal, as a number of ambitious politicians aspire to run for Illinois treasurer in 2006.

"I'm running if she doesn't," said state Representative Mike Boland (D-71), an 18-year legislator from the Quad Cities area, referring to the expectancy that Judy Baar Topinka, the three-term incumbent Republican state treasurer, will run for governor in 2006.

Presuming that Topinka opts for a run against Democratic Governor Rod Blagojeivch, which is likely, her post looms as the only down-ballot statewide constitutional office that will be hotly contested in 2006. The three incumbent Democrats, Secretary of State Jesse White, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes, are locks for re-nomination and re-election.
Stewart believes that if two or more Chicago candidates split the vote in the Democratic primary, then Boland will have a good shot of winning, much in the way Glenn Poshard was able to rack up 71% of the downstate vote in 1998.

Steward provides an excellent historical overview as well. It all sounds reasonable to me. What do you think?

> MORE <


At 6/14/2005 9:05 PM, Blogger politicalwind said...

I'm not sure who Mr. Stewart is, or what his political credentials are.

But let me shoot a few darts through his analyses. In fact, the more I read his analyses the more leaky I see his entire view is.

First, to call Mr. Boland "obscure" is a bit ridiculous. This is the same Mike Boland that has traveled the state, holding as many as 150 press conferences. I would be shocked if he didn't push the needle up to 25% in terms of statewide name ID.

Second, Boland is this/close to Lt. Gov. Quinn, who is this/close to Dick Mell, who is this/close to
billionaire Blair Hull. Connect the dots and Boland has about $5 million to spend in a primary.

Third, Boland is this/close to Speaker Madigan who has shovelled at least $250,000 to assist Mike Boland in his House races since 1996. That means Boland could pull in the powerful Southwest side vote.

Fourth, I'm not sure Mike Boland has a chance at winning a Democratic primary. Let's face it; he's from nowheresville and he would be up against popular Dorothy Brown or popular Mike Laski in Cook County.

Fifth, to compare Boland to Poshard is ... well, it's not quite accurate. Poshard was a very dynamic and charismatic ten-term congressman when he ran. I wouldn't put Mike Boland into that category.

That's all for now.

At 6/14/2005 9:24 PM, Blogger politicalwind said...

A couple extra thoughts.

I do agree that the Democratic Party had better nominate a downstater for State Treasurer in 2006. Right now, other than Dick Durbin of Springfield, we're all Chicago.

Mike Boland has a chance to become the "downstate candidate" if he's smart and savvy and well funded.

But there are other downstaters eyeing State Treasurer, including former Rockford Mayor Douglas Scott, State Rep. Jay Hoffman (who is this/close to the Governor), Ass't House Democratic Majority Leader Kurt Granberg of Southern IL, former State Sen. Denny Jacobs,
former State Rep. Ricca Slone of Peoria and Springfield Mayor Tim Davlin.

In other words, Representative Boland, come on in, the water's fine, join the long list of downstaters interested in State Treasurer.

At 6/14/2005 9:42 PM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Politicalwind, thanks for your excellent analysis. That really fleshes things out and you provide a great perspective on this scenario.

At 6/15/2005 5:44 AM, Blogger none said...

This is the same Mike Boland who when first elected to the house, professed he was interested in being Lt. Governor, then State Senator, now State Tres? Don't you think you should do the job you have now, and do it well, before you look for a promotion? Does anyone truely beleive M.B. at 63, with a questionable ticker, and no professional looking, or acting staff around him, have a chance at any office other then State Rep? BOLAND FOR ILLINOIS. HA. His signs should read BOLAND FOR BOLAND.

At 6/15/2005 6:42 AM, Blogger maybesomeday said...

This must be quite tempting for Mike Boland and I am sure something young Mike Jacobs gets down on his knees and prays for each and every night.

We will see if one or both of them get their wish(es) soon.

At 6/15/2005 8:49 AM, Blogger hud50 said...

One thing's for sure, everybody has to start to announce what they are gonna do. The filing deadline is in December, and that means you start circulating your petitions in September... In my opinion our primary is held too early. Nonetheless, the dominos should start to fall soon.

At 6/15/2005 9:17 AM, Blogger rope-a-dope said...

Boland would love a shot at Treasurer . . . but doesn't have the money to go statewide . . .

At 6/15/2005 9:42 AM, Blogger diehard said...

Boland has as good a chance as anybody downstate. I know his last name isnt Madigan or Hynes and Alderman Mell is not his father in law. But the thing I like most about Boland ,{and there isn't much}, is that everything he has gotten he worked for. Unlike some State Senators and State Reps I know!

At 6/15/2005 1:31 PM, Blogger maybesomeday said...

Rope a Dope, yeah I agree he may not have the money. Too bad he doesn't have a well funded sugar daddie like Young Mike Jacobs....

At 6/15/2005 1:37 PM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Thanks to all commenters. So great to see varied and valid comments from all points of view.

PoliticalWind... good points, but as far as your taking issue with the comparison to Poshard... Your point that Boland is not as charismatic or dynamic as Poshard may be valid, however, Poshard got over 70% of the downstate vote. Even if Boland doesn't do near as well as that, he'd still have a shot at winning, wouldn't he?

At 6/15/2005 4:20 PM, Blogger politicalwind said...

Yes, Ms. Dope, Poshard pulled in an astounding 75% of the primary vote from downstate. No, Mr. Boland does not have to hit 75% -- but if there are a couple well-financed and big name ID candidates from the county of Cook, he will need at least 60% of the downstate vote.

Pink Floyd sang the tune: "Money."

That's what Mr. Boland needs to pay for radio and TV in the downstate media markets plus in Cook County where a week of TV costs something like $275,000.

Ouch is right!

But some sources, who wish to remain anonymous, suggest that Boland's pal Blair Hull can write the East Moline Democrat a check for $250,000 to kickstart his statewide campaign.

Personally, I don't see it happening. The price tag of running statewide is too high.
Boland has a safe House seat and why leave that?

At 6/15/2005 7:20 PM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

I'm torn. On the one hand, if Boland jumps for the Treasurer's spot, it avoids a collision with the Jacobs, which of course would be best. If he decides to stay put, it will preclude some quality younger candidates from going for his House seat.

But the blogger in me has a morbid desire to witness the bloodbath that would be a Boland/Jacobs clash.

But then again, that could get so ugly, maybe I should watch what I wish for. That scenario would likely be so low, so ugly, and so disgusting that everyone in the area would find themselves trying to scrub the grime off themselves for years to come.

And it has the potential that such a race would turn off EVERYONE and even Dems might end up voting for a Repubican just to get rid of both of them.

At 6/16/2005 9:51 AM, Blogger DownLeft said...

I wrote about this before Stewart and my co-blogger responded to him here:

You can really tell Stewart is from Chicago. Suggesting that Boland is conservative like Poshard is laughable.

Laski has some enemies in Chicago. In a two-way race between Laski and Boland, Boland would probably win if he gets 70% of the downstate vote. The advantage for Boland is that if he is the only downstate candidate then he doesn't need to win Chicago to win the primary, just like Rod.

At 6/16/2005 2:05 PM, Blogger maybesomeday said...

I for one, do hope that Boland runs statewide for a few reasons.

First of all, Boland won't play in Gianulis' sandbox so that means that he will allow the voters to choose his replacement in a primary/general election - not Gialulis picking for us like we have been seeing - ughhh. We may see some new blood.

Second, if Boland runs, he probably has the backing from the Statewide officeholders which would mean he has a real shot at it and could add to the Dem column of elected statewides in our capitol. Nice.

Third, it puts a final end to the Jacobs feud. I know we are all sick to death of it. If Boland moves up, and Mike Jacobs gives genuine real support - not fakey pretend shallow help- then we heal some of the wounds. If not, then it spells the demise of Mike Jacobs. This would be his best chance to show leadership - and he needs to seize it and work it if given the opportunity. He'd have no excuse not to do it wholeheartedly.

Unlike most voters who sleepwalk like sheep through the process, I have a long memory and I will keep reminding all what I know about the history of all of this.

So again, Mikey J - get down and say your prayers nightly that Boland will and can run Statewide so you can continue to puff up yourself as you have done a lot lately - except this time - for the sake of our Party for a change and not yourself.

At 6/17/2005 12:41 PM, Blogger theheadusher said...

Somedaysoon (Mike Boland),

I hate to break it to you Mike, but the only option left is to run for reelection.

Hopefully, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, U.S. Congressman Lane Evans, Illinois Senator Mike Jacobs and Rock Island County Democrat Chairman John Gianulis can be persuaded to support your final relection campaign!

At 6/18/2005 9:54 AM, Blogger maybesomeday said...

Wow - you just gave yourself away HU (I mean Mike J). Final re-election campaign?

Bitter and sad. Show some leadership and stop bashing others will ya?

Or else be prepared to look for a job the old fashin way like the hard working folks you say you represent.

Or maybe you (Mike Jacobs) like to help the rich over the regular workin class. Will you stand up for organized labor? I bet not.

At 6/18/2005 12:02 PM, Blogger theheadusher said...

Maybesomeday (I mean Mike Boland),

Did you know that "Big Mike Jacobs" worked for three Quad-City labor before he won appointment to the Illinois Senate?

That's right, before graduating from the University of Illinois and earning a Master Degree from the University of Florida, "Big Mike Jacobs" worked for the UAW 1309, ASCME Council 31 and the Laborers 309. In fact, "Big Mike Jacobs" led a six-month strike at IH over the issue of mandatory overtime. During that same period Mr. Boland, you crossed a picket-line, quit your union (the IEA) and worked as a "SCAB" for two-and-a-half years.

During that time Mr. Boland, you greedily took every hard fought gain won by your former labor union (IEA) and failed to pay a single due. My dad called people like you (Boland) a "Rat!"

I don't know about you Mike Boland, but I think this fact is going to be hard for you to expalin away!

Look for "Big Mike Jacobs" to go on the offense in early July with this key labor issue!

At 6/22/2005 6:53 AM, Blogger maybesomeday said...

The time frame is what's missing HU. Exactly what years are we talking on this pumped up resume? I don't believe your statements and need to look into it first. Give me the years so I can do some fact checking - otherwise just shut up and stop talking what you know nothing about.


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