March 4, 2008

Should she stay or should she go?

Today's a big day in the epic contest between Obama and Clinton, as big as all the other days which were supposed to be THE day... the do or die date where only one candidate would emerge.

As has been noted ad infinitum by the pundits, Bill Clinton and other Clinton partisans have stated that Hillary must win both Ohio and Texas or it's curtains for her campaign.

The Clash's lament seems amazingly fitting at the moment:

Darling you gotta let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
If you say that you are mine
I'll be here til the end of time
So you got to let know
Should I stay or should I go?

Always tease tease tease
You're happy when Im on my knees
One day is fine, next is black
So if you want me off your back

Well come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?

Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know

This indecisions bugging me
If you dont want me, set me free
Exactly whom I'm supposed to be
Don't know which clothes even fit me?

Come on and let me know
Should I cool it or should I blow?

Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
Should I stay or should I go?

Yet even now, rumblings from her campaign seem to leave open the possibility that even if Clinton wins only one state today, she may still drag it on to the bitter end.

With the numbers decidedly against her, and most accounts holding that she needs to run the table today and not only win the two big states, but win them big in order to emerge as still viable to get the nomination, the question becomes, what will it take for Clinton to throw in the towel?

Today's question is, what would justify Hillary Clinton continuing the battle for the nomination?

Does she need to win both Texas and Ohio by large and nearly impossible margins, as most in the press have maintained?

What if she wins both states, but only narrowly and emerges still behind Obama in delegates?

What if she wins one state (probably Ohio) by a fair margin, but loses Texas in a squeaker? (my predicted scenario) Does she need to get out then?

Can she win only one state of the three in contention today and still make a case for continuing the fight?

In other words, what result today would justify Clinton's continuing to battle Obama for a few more months?

Bear in mind that every day that passes without a clear Dem nominee is another day lost in the effort to unite the Dems and begin to focus on the general election.

The Dems have screwed up yet again by moving their convention to an earlier date, thus ensuring that if this battle goes all the way, there's essentially no time whatsoever after the convention in which to mount an effective campaign for the general election.

The longer this contest drags on, the worse the prospects of the Dems become in November, both due to delay in organizing and fundraising, and by having the candidates bang on each other and essentially do the Republican's work for them.

What's your thoughts? Should Hillary bow out? And if not, what does she need to achieve today to justify extending the battle?

If Hillary decides to fight to the bitter end, perhaps this tune would be more appropriate, only substituting Pennsyvania for Slidell and West Memphis.
(Warning, the above tune will get lodged in your head for days. Don't say you weren't warned.)


At 3/04/2008 7:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If she loses big in both, then she needs to go. Otherwise, she is not, and should not, go anywhere. Obama is still a man without experience, a man that has said little more than, "Change!". Once voters see his nomination as inevitable, they very well might start having buyers remorse - and she needs to be there should this happen.

At 3/04/2008 9:58 AM, Blogger No Nonsense said...

She needs to go! But I have that strange feeling in my belly that she will drag this one taking the whole democratic party down with her. It's her or nobody. And who in the Dem Party will dare tell her to bow out? I am sure she has dirt on every single one of them

At 3/04/2008 11:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Helllooooooo, is anybody in here?

At 3/04/2008 11:33 AM, Blogger tiz said...

If she gets a landslide in Ohio and it's close in TX (either way) I wouldn't fault her for staying in.

My prediction:
She'll barely win Ohio and lose by about 10 points in TX. She'll try to get mileage to stay from the Ohio victory before the DNC elders convince her to bow out. She'll quit on Friday.

At 3/04/2008 3:15 PM, Blogger UMRBlog said...

When the sun rises tomorrow a.m., she must have gained net delegates.

Where this gets confusing is that Texas is very likely not to have final tallies until maybe Thursday. More than half the caucuses don't even have proctors assigned.

She's a cautious person. She won't make up her mind without final numbers. If she splits the states 2/2 and gains delegates, she's gotta see Pennsylvania and let John Edwards play his hole card in NC. If she splits the states and doesn't gain delegates, she'll be out in a week.

If she wins three states and gains delegates, we're going to see more Canadian diplomatic memos and Rezko-grams. The hunt will be on.

In any event, we're gonna see some history in the next 24 hours.

At 3/04/2008 5:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

she should stay if she wins Ohio.
my gut says she will win Ohio, and right now, at 5:45 on tuesday night, she may win Texas too...
things could get interesting. enough to turn the tide, I think.

At 3/04/2008 10:25 PM, Anonymous you know said...

Watching the results from Super Tuesday II, the only thing for certain is that the Democrats have SERIOUS issues forthcoming.

Obama has the lead, but Hillary is NOT going away.

It looks like they will go to the convention split - and fighting. The issue will come down to Michigan and Florida...

1. Count them and you disenfranchise Democrats across the board,

2. Don't count them and you disenfranchise Democrats in two very important states.

The Democrats have just walked into their worst nightmare. They have a terrible situation on their hands - and it is not going to get better. All the while, McCain can raise money, yet does not have to spend money. They will fight and tear each other down (let's face it, doing so has breathed new life into Hillary - there is no reason for her to stop now) - while McCain gets to build coalitions,

The democrats worst nightmare....


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