October 6, 2006

America Wakes Up:: Bush at 36%, Republicans not much better

Time Magazine's latest poll:
Two-thirds of Americans aware of the congressional-page sex scandal believe Republican leaders tried to cover it up — and one quarter of them say the affair makes them less likely to vote for G.O.P. candidates in their districts come November. Those are among the findings of a new TIME poll conducted this week among 1,002 randomly-selected voting-age Americans.

The poll suggests the Foley affair may have dented Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress in November. Among the registered voters who were polled, 54% said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared with 39% who favored the Republican. That margin may be fueled by the rolling scandal over sexually explicit e-mails sent to teenage pages by Republican Representative Mark Foley. Almost 80% of respondents were aware of the scandal, and only 16% approve of the Republicans' handling of it. Those polled were divided, however, on whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert should resign over his handling of the Foley affair, with 39% saying he should resign and 38% saying he should not.

Iraq, meanwhile, is continuing to be a problem for the Republicans. Only 38% of respondents in the TIME poll now support President Bush's decision to invade Iraq, down from 42% three months ago. A similar number believe that the new Iraqi government will succeed in forming a stable democracy, while 59% believe this is unlikely. Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war, while 54% believe he "deliberately misled" Americans in making his case for war — a figure that has increased by 6 points over the past year. President Bush's overall approval rating, according to TIME's poll, now stands at just 36%, down from 38% in August.


At 10/06/2006 11:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"1,002 randomly-selected voting-age Americans"
A poll that does not select most likely voters is meaningless. Voting age American gives you nothing because 50% won't be at the polls on election day.

At 10/06/2006 5:16 PM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Anon 11:38

Soooooo..... You're saying Bush and the Republicans are really doing well?


Cut the sample size in half and it doesn't affect the accuracy that much.

And again, are you trying to say that the poll is wrong and Bush and the Republicans are enjoying say, 50% support?

Keep dreaming.

Tack on another 10% and he's still in the crapper.

At 10/07/2006 1:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dope.....You are usually pretty good with these things but you are off on this one. My point is this: If you want to judge how an election might be decided, poll the people who will be there on election day. Those are most likely voters. Election records make it easy to poll them. If you just want an opinion on something poll anyone you want. But don't poll voting age Americans and think that means that the numbers you get are going to be the numbers at the ballot box on election day.

At 10/07/2006 1:42 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

I'm not off on this, and neither are you.

I just think that you're making a distinction without a difference.

Nit-picking about polling methods avoids the larger fact that Bush and the Republicans are on the ropes in a big way.

I'm certain that you could find polls which use exclusively "likely" voters and their results wouldn't vary from this one much at all.

But if you feel that distinction is that critical to this, then yes, I agree, a poll of only "likely" voters could be expected to produce a more accurate idea of election results than a population consisting eligible voters.

And a count of actual votes would be even more accurate that that.

But what's the point? Bush and the Republicans are tanking big time across all polling categories.

But again, I think your point is not a big enough difference to even matter, and it certainly doesn't suggest that the results of this poll don't accurately reflect the mood of the country, INCLUDING likely voters.


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