Crystal Ball time again
It's been some time... since Labor Day actually, since before the campaigns cranked up in earnest, since I've asked you to offer your learned predictions on state and local races.
Well, now the races are in full swing, the media campaigns have been rolled out, the local hacks are flinging feces in all directions, and we're firmly in the middle of silly season.
Issues? Well, Zinga and Hare are valiantly discussing them. Boland tried to, but Haring went straight to the politics of personal destruction and distortion, and whatever his views are seem lost in the shuffle. But the Republicans from outside the area who are running campaigns are still banking that the "go negative early and often" strategy which has been the bedrock of Republican victories for so long will still come through for them.
The Jacobs/Beals race isn't even worth mentioning. Sen. Mike gets a pass again.
Everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop in investigations around Blagojevich, but short of some bombshell revelations, he seems to have the race sewn up.
So... dust off your balls and offer your prognostications on local and statewide elections and what will be the final score on November 3rd.
Pick your races and tell us who will win and by what percentage.
And remember, we'll go back after election day and take a look at who is the best analyst in all the land.
posted by The Inside Dope @ 10/23/2006
20 comments
20 Comments:
Low Hanging Fruit:
Hare 53/Zinga 47
Semi-upset specials:
Rutherford loses to White but gets better than 45%. The luster's been of JW as a "good government" guy for some time.
Talent 51/McC 49--weak turnout in St. Louis and Jackson Counties.
Chafee Rallies to beat Whitehouse
52/48.
Roskam beats Duckworth 52-48 and all the librarians in Illinois emigrate to Australia.
The folks of the Commonwealth of Virginia figure the jerk they have now is less bad than breaking in a new jerk and reelect George Allen. Allen then announces he's moving to Massachussets to be eligible for a civil union with his openly gay campaign manager. Webb wishes him "Hakuna Makaka".
Harold Ford beats Corker and the Klan boycotts Jack Daniels in protest.
Whatever happens Don Rumsfeld will tell anybody who will listen that it's not his fault.
It's still too early to call.
At this point every day is like a week, every week is like a month.
Blago 47 Topinka 53
Hare 59 Zinga 41
Boland 52 Haring 48
Jacobs 76 Beals 24
Huff 45 Sweigen 55
I know some sp is off, out of laziness, not preference.
anon 17:53.
I know you can't predict things until the day after the election. And it was early on Labor Day too, but that didn't stop dozens from tossing out their markers.
It's like giving an opinion on who will take the World Series. It's too early for that too... but that doesn't stop nearly everyone from doing it.
This is simply a way to gage how expectations change at various stages of the campaign.
Hare, Mike, Mike, Wright,Lieberman.
Plan unfolds to turn over war to Iraqis, as more US soldiers are killed.
Obama changes his mind again after elections.
Coup takes out Pakistani President.
Israel's behavior does not change and a free Palistine is still a dream.
Bush continues to embarrass US and us.
Rumsfeld's health forces him to resign.
McCain begins to speak about peace instead of more war.
Colin Powell resurfaces on behalf of McCain.
Tacky... WOW!
Now that's impressive and a very intriguing forecast indeed.
Your election predictions are likely dead on, though Wright is not assured, and the rest are wide ranging, very interesting, and entirely plausible.
I think the safest prediction is that Bush will continue to be an embarassment and the Israeli government will continue to be an impediment to peace.
Blagojovich over Baar Topinka by 2%
(Unfortunately Riley or even a true democrat isn't a more prominent figure in this race)
Hare over Zinga 56% to 44%
(I have never met a person who is going to vote for this snippy woman)
Jacobs over Beals 59% to 41%
Boland over Haring 51% to 49%
Powers over Wright 53% to 47%
(Wright is Right for the Job but money will buy this appelate court judge seat)
Huff over Schwigen 56% to 44%
(Schwigen is making a fool of himself with his negative campaigning and we know who his mentor is!)
Jacobs over Beals 68% - 32%
Hare over Zinga 58% - 42%
(Zinga goes for the tri-fecta in 2008, loses even bigger)
Blago over JBT 52% - 48%
(Blago indicted before 2009)
Schwigen over Huff 51% - 49%
Haring over Boland 51% - 49%
Obama gets the Dem nomination in 2008 - faces Guliani.
The Greens become an established party for 2008.
The latest poll shows Haring trailing Boland by 3 points, or within the margine of error. As a result, how is Jacobs supposed to garner 60% of the vote when he's b being forced to drag Boland around on his back?
If Boland was a better candidate and not in so much trouble then Jacobs might actually garner 60% of the vote. At this point the only candidate with a chance to garner 55% or more of the vote is Congressman Phil Hare!
This is my honest pre-election analysis for you T.I.D.
Phil Hare's a political pro, and it would take far more than a candidate like Zinga to give him a serious challenge. Zinga doesn't even look comfortable as a talking head, which to me is the only role she knows. Phil knows how to GOTV which will help boost his numbers.
Hare 58% - Zinga 42%
Mike Jacobs is also a pro at elections, and Senator Jacob's family is a powerhouse in Rock Island County. I know and like members of the Beal's family, who are mostly Democrats. But, that's not going to cut anything with most Democrat voters, and Beal's relative absence on the campaign trail will hurt him. Mike Jacob's will win comfortably.
Jacobs 60% - Beals 40%
Mike Boland is being targeted by the House Republicans, which makes his race one of the most closely contested House races in all of Illinois. Boland's not a typical politician, that hurts him some with insiders, but helps him some with swing voters.
Steve Haring's mostly negative campaign seems to have only one theme - Steve Haring is the anti-Mike Boland candidate. This race has also become a surrogate battle between Republican and Democratic party leadership, with Republican Minority Leader Tom Cross showing behind Haring for nearly every news conference his candidate holds.
In the end, Haring's negative attacks go a bit too far, the quality constituent services Boland's district office offers, and Mike Boland's background as a founder of the Citizen's Utility Board saves the day.
Boland 52% - Haring 48%
Vicki Wright is right for the people. Judge Wright's vast superiority in experience, and the quality of her character show through in a tough race. I don't know this district well enough to predict numbers well, but I do know Porter has been campaigning/consulting for Vicki, and his political instincts are very good. Vicki Wright wins a hard earned and well deserved victory.
Yorky,
The idea that Jacobs is carrying Boland "on his back" is about the goofiest notion I've heard in a long time. As is even thinking about what Jacobs' percentage will be. No one cares.
He's going to win, and the margin is of no interest beyond the people who are playing this prediction game.
Boland doesn't affect Jacobs in the slightest.
Zinga 53% - Hare 47%
AZ,
Interested in making a friendly wager on that prediction?
Of course not, it was a joke. I don't know that Zinga herself would put a dollar behind that prediction!
Does Blago's numbers affect Boland in the slightest?
Does Bush's approval ratings hurt Harring?
Of course they both do as does Bolands trouble affect all Dem's.
Rod,
Phil,
Mike,
Mike,
Vicki by a hair,(I hope)
& Mike.
Anon 22:24
Asking a question and then answering it yourself in the way you want does not make it so.
This isn't the big time. There's no evidence whatsoever that Boland has any cross party effect on anything. He's not the top of the ticket and he certainly doesn't affect Jacobs whatsoever.
You can continue to think he does, but it's just a guess, obviously.
This is off topic though, so the coattail topic is done.
I can not believe a republican in RICO. It is more like Boland losing the seat thatn Haring and the Republicans winning. I have been waiting a long time for this.
Haring 53
Boland 47
Poor Andrea Zinga couldn't even get the endorsement of Log Cabin Republican's - http://online.logcabin.org/news_views/reading-room-back-up/log-cabin-republicans-5.html
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