December 21, 2006

Obama vs. Clinton, who gets the nomination?

I've avoided speculation about what is going to happen a year or more out, and have avoided framing the Dem race as being Obama vs. Clinton, mostly because I don't even like to think of such a contest, being that each has so much to offer and are such strong candidates. Secondly, I really find the gossipy, let's create a fight, type mentality displayed by the media where they salivate over a bruising match between the two and try to create a story line where Hilary Clinton is seething over and/or scared of Obama to be silly and serves to trivialize the process.

But I haven't thrown any meat to the armchair political strategists for a while, so here we go.

If Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton are both front runners a year from now, who do you think will get the Democratic nomination?

This of course depends on many factors, such as fund raising ability, (both extremely strong) and how they'd play in the key primary states.

Or as a wildcard, do you seriously think that if these two run, any other candidates stand a chance of picking one of them off?

So roll it around in your head a little while and then give us your pick as to who you feel would prevail in a primary contest between Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton and don't forget to include your reasoning.

15 Comments:

At 12/22/2006 8:10 AM, Blogger Nancy said...

Here Near Philadelphia when it is time for the Oscars, the local pundits write about who WILL win and also about who SHOULD win.

Ms. Clinton WILL win. Because she has more money to put into the race. And because to many, many Americans the RACE is what matters, not the race. That is to say, Obama is prolly not electable now because of his skin color. Sad commentary. He SHOULD win because he's bright, non-tainted, and the kind of idealistic visionary that we need. The sooner the better, if you ask me. Which you did.

 
At 12/23/2006 4:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Barack Obama. Hillary is not liked by the left anymore than the right. She will not be able to overcome the ill will of the left for the war and nafta and her association with the DLC.
And with her inability to give a decent speech, she will not rouse those who are thinking of maybe supporting her to come out and do anything including vote.
She also gives off the air of being uncomfortable with the 'little people'
Obama is vastly under rated in his depth and knowledge of the issues. When he is given the chance to show his chops it will be seen as much more than someone like Hillary. they were expecting an Edwards like lightweight and so, when he shows his stuff it will pull many over who were maybe a bit unsure.
His ability to inspire and have that carry over for a long time will get people to the polls.
His connecting and that something he has is overwhelming. You put that with the intellect, thoughtfulness and his ability to see and grasp the issues and then explain it in a way that people can understand will be what carries him over.
There is more than a nice smile there.

 
At 12/23/2006 6:15 PM, Anonymous Will said...

Coincidentally, I just wrote my take on Hillary's chances at my blog. If Obama gets in the race it will be between Obama and Edwards. Hillary has big money and media support but she will crash and burn quickly once people start voting.

 
At 12/23/2006 11:10 PM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Will, thanks for the heads up, and great to see you're back up and blogging after your campaign.

Folks, Will Reynolds recently ran for and narrowly lost a race for county board in Sangamon county. He has a fine blog "Where There's a Will, There's a Way" at
http://www.thereisaway.us/

His most recent post explains why he thinks Hilary won't emerge as the Democratic nominee.

Give the blog a look and it will be in the blogroll for future reference.

 
At 12/25/2006 2:33 AM, Blogger Scott said...

A new Iowa poll just came out with Hillary running forth. If Obama can stretch this rock start status, I think he has a chance for VP or P. One can only hope.

 
At 12/25/2006 8:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

the only polls i have seen has shown Hillary beating McCain and Giuliani (sp)... as far as Dem versus Dem, the only poll I have seen was in Iowa with Obama not even in the picture yet, and Edwards leading Clinton..?

 
At 12/25/2006 8:19 PM, Blogger Scott said...

Anon, here is the poll in question. http://www.kcci.com/politics/10585392/detail.html

Edwards is tied with Obama at 22%. Vilsack comes in at 12 (not bad for a man who obviously wants to stay in for a while, shape the debate, and work for the next administration). Clinton is pulling in 4 with 10% (the midwest and the South are going to prove that Clinton is not the front runner)

 
At 12/26/2006 1:28 PM, Anonymous Will said...

Thanks for the plug ID!

 
At 12/31/2006 2:29 PM, Blogger parburypolitica said...

Looking at this from the other side of the pond I think Hilary could be a good president, but there is a buzz about Obama that makes me think he could be a great one.

What I would say though is listen to what they have to say on policy as that is ultimatly what matters.

 
At 7/26/2007 7:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It looks like Hillary will not get get the nomination Obama will get the nomination cause he's the best candant because makes 2 much change.Change is good but 2 much change is bad.Luv Taj

 
At 8/14/2007 12:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obama can easily defeat a Republican candidate------I do not believe Hillary can. People will not stand for 16 consecutive years of Bush and Clinton rule. Times are not good in this nation, and another Clinton presidency keeps the status quo alive and well. People are fed up and the premise that Hillary can initiate real change is a total joke.

 
At 12/20/2007 7:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obama will win(i'm not crazy lol!)
dems won't 2 win the white house

obama leads in national polls :

obama vs rudy = obama
obama vs mike = obama
obama vs mitt = obama

 
At 12/21/2007 3:15 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

That's a no-brainer. ALL of the dem candidates poll higher than ALL of the Republican candidates, with only one exception.... McCain wins a matchup with Clinton.

So your saying that Obama wins against these guys is meaningless. ALL the top three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards win against any Republican (with the above exception.)

The fact of the matter is however, as I wrote in a post above, that Edwards wins by a larger margin over each Republican candidate than any other Dem.

Yes, voters prefer him even over Obama.

 
At 5/15/2008 1:24 AM, Anonymous silvia said...

First of all Hillary Clinton should win. I dont even understand how she is losing right now. This country right now is destroyed and the only president that can fix it and make it a succesful country like it once was is Clinton. She has been involved in this for a very very long time she has a lot more knowledge and experience than obama considering her husband was one of the best presidents of the united states. She knows what shes talking about and if she was to win i guarantee this country will get better. Shes planning to finally stop this war which is going to save the USA millions and millions of dollars a day, which is auomatically better for our economy. our economy betters, and peoples lifestyle will better as well. she has health care plans which are also very important, and everything she has said she"ll do is what this country needs. Not only all that but if she wins presidency its like basically having our country ran by 2 great leaders, cause Bill Clinton is going to be there assisting her, and he knows how to properly run this country. PLEASE VOTE FOR HILLARY. SHE DESERVES TO WIN. THIS COUNTRY DESERVES FOR HER TO WIN.

 
At 5/16/2008 7:46 AM, Blogger The Inside Dope said...

Silvia,
No offense, but Hillary has already lost.

All those things you said Clinton would do or is capable of doing, Obama has pledged to do as well.

Please relax and realize that either Clinton or Obama will be infinitely better presidents than Bush or any Republican.

The difference between Obama and Clinton just isn't worth the sort of emotional heat you bring to it.

 

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